Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.273353 0.315852 0.362143 0.416225 0.477587 0.544957 0.624435
2025-07-06 0.200955 0.253824 0.316094 0.394540 0.490391 0.603345 0.746156
2025-07-13 0.160904 0.220754 0.296509 0.398710 0.532163 0.699585 0.924469
2025-07-20 0.126352 0.187987 0.271658 0.392216 0.559871 0.782898 1.099757
2025-07-27 0.102979 0.165662 0.256646 0.396147 0.601888 0.890793 1.322834
2025-08-03 0.085206 0.147855 0.244834 0.402582 0.648449 1.011518 1.580738
2025-08-10 0.066122 0.123979 0.219581 0.384589 0.656262 1.077766 1.769712
2025-08-17 0.050500 0.102334 0.193729 0.360949 0.651344 1.123863 1.934411
2025-08-24 0.040587 0.088556 0.178481 0.352223 0.669190 1.207930 2.169728
2025-08-31 0.032762 0.076879 0.164681 0.343488 0.685455 1.291232 2.414167
2025-09-07 0.028073 0.070470 0.159616 0.350076 0.730164 1.428866 2.768105
2025-09-14 0.022329 0.060253 0.144800 0.334797 0.731201 1.488410 2.990674
2025-09-21 0.018023 0.052387 0.133706 0.326016 0.745506 1.577941 3.286554
2025-09-28 0.014435 0.045239 0.122633 0.315186 0.754036 1.657949 3.575575
2025-10-05 0.012559 0.042090 0.120307 0.323738 0.805344 1.829655 4.065003
2025-10-12 0.010522 0.037830 0.114254 0.322333 0.834504 1.959959 4.487305
2025-10-19 0.009134 0.035088 0.111546 0.328734 0.882787 2.137072 5.027823
2025-10-26 0.008002 0.032793 0.109542 0.336617 0.935982 2.331685 5.628125
2025-11-02 0.006427 0.028376 0.100303 0.323165 0.934436 2.403528 5.969250
2025-11-09 0.005027 0.024001 0.089968 0.304339 0.915875 2.433557 6.220244
2025-11-16 0.004157 0.021324 0.084295 0.297879 0.928900 2.540132 6.659232
2025-11-23 0.003436 0.018938 0.078920 0.291146 0.940048 2.643493 7.102284
2025-11-30 0.003037 0.017819 0.077708 0.297409 0.989069 2.847832 7.810833